ESTIMATION OF THE VOLUME OF CONSUMPTION OF UNREGISTRATED ALCOHOL IN THE REPUBLIC OF BELARUS

Abstract

An objective and scientifically substantiated assessment of the volume of alcohol consumption (including unregistered alcohol) is necessary in determining the damage from alcohol consumption, as well as for presenting the real alcohol situation in countries.

Based on this, the purpose of this study was to assess the volume of consumption of unregistered alcohol, taking into account international approaches and national characteristics of the Republic of Belarus.

The results of the study allowed us to propose the following algorithm for calculating unregistered alcohol, which can be used for monitoring the alcohol situation:

1. Calculation of the volume of consumption of unregistered alcohol according to a sociological survey.


2. Calculation of the volume of consumption of absolute alcohol per capita at the age of 15 years and older, which is in illegal circulation, based on expert estimates.


3. Modeling the volume of unregistered alcohol consumption using regression models;


4. Final calculation of the volume of consumption of unregistered alcohol in the Republic of Belarus.

In addition, two groups of regression models have been developed to estimate the volume of unregistered alcohol consumption:

- based on time series of indicators of socio-economic development,

- based on mortality rates from alcohol-related diseases.

The proposed model for calculating unregistered alcohol makes it possible to maximally objectify the picture of the overall level of alcohol consumption and use the obtained indicators for the purposes of optimal planning of anti-alcohol policy.